Due to the stochastic nature of wind energy, allocating an appropriate investment incentive for wind generation technology (WGT) is a complicated issue. We propose an improvement on the traditional incentive, known as capacity payment mechanism (CPM), to reward the wind generators based on their performance exogenously affected by the wind energy potential of the location where the turbines are installed, and therefore, lead the investments towards locations with more generation potential. In CPM, a part of investment cost of each generator is recovered through fixed payments. However, in our proposal, wind generators are rewarded according to dynamic forecasts of the wind energy potential of the wind farm where they are located. We use an auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model to forecast the wind speed fluctuations in long-term while capturing the auto-correlation of wind velocity variation in consecutive time intervals. Using the System Dynamics (SD) modelling approach a competitive electricity market is designed to examine the efficiency of the proposed incentive. Performing a simulation Analysis, we conclude that while a fixed CPM for wind generation can decrease the loss of load durations and average prices in long-term, the proposed improvement can provide quite similar results more efficiently.

Presence of risks and uncertainties inherent in project development and implementation plays significant role in poor project performance. Thus, there is a considerable need to have an effective risk Analysis approach in order to assess the impact of different risks on the project objectives. A powerful risk Analysis approach may consider dynamic nature of risks throughout the life cycle of the project, as well as accounting for feedback loops affecting the overall risk impacts. This paper presents a new approach to construction risk Analysis in which these major influences are considered and quantified explicitly. The proposed methodology is a System Dynamics based approach in which different risks may efficiently be modeled, simulated and quantified in terms of time, cost and quality by the use of the implemented object oriented simulation methodology. To evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology it has been employed in a bridge construction project. Due to the space limitations, the modeling and quantification process for one of the identified risks namely “pressure to crash project duration” is explained in detail.

The purpose of the current research was to investigate the obstacles to the implementation of school-based management in Iran's educational System based on the interpretive structural modeling approach. The research method was a modeling study. The statistical population of the research was specifically the academic staff members of the university, 25 of whom were purposefully selected from the desired cases. The data collection tool was a researcher-made self-interactive questionnaire. In order to measure and evaluate the validity of the questionnaire, the criterion of content validity was used. The content validity of the questionnaire was 0.96. The data Analysis was done with interpretive structural modeling method. The results of the research showed that 9 factors play a role as barriers to school-oriented management. Also, the results showed that financial obstacles (the cost of school-oriented management), socio-cultural obstacles and political obstacles (political focus on schools by the central government) as key independent variables have high influence power and low dependence. Also, the results showed that the lack of belief in the professional competence of school administrators, the lack of infrastructure facilities, the emphasis of upper management on the supervision and control of schools, and the lack of cooperation of local communities with school-based management as the linking variables with the greatest power of influence and the greatest power of dependence. and the centralism in the education System of the country and the lack of legal powers to school managers and staff as dependent variables have high dependency power and low influence power.

Business Self-assessment is applied for identification and improvement of business competition situation. Excellence models are the Self-assessment tools and EFQM is a Self-assessment model. In EFQM model, the performance of activities and Systems affects results indices; on the other side, the improvement of enablers will be influenced by the feedback of results' variations. So it is essential to study this loop by a Systemic model to observe their interactive effects on each other. Despite of several researches on EFQM model fields, application of System Dynamics has been ignored. So, the improvement of EFQM model from the Systemic viewpoint will be investigated in this paper. This research shows that we can select the more effective policies among the usable policies by using of this model.

In today's complex world when we talk about IT projects, risk appears such as an inseparable part. The purpose of this study is to identify risks in IT project management and their effect on the overall risk of the project. In order to achieve this objective, we study a wide range of researches in the field of IT project risk Analysis. We classify risk factors and the factors are simulated in a dynamic model. Then, some equations are extracted using examining relationship between structures and factors, and the risks are studied in a period of 12 month. The results of this study show that human resource risk is the most important risk that is repeated, after that project management risk is the second risk. Strategic risk is a risk that is appeared in some periods. So, we suggest IT project managers to pay more attention to these risks in the politics and strategies.

The city's regeneration is one of the strategies that lead to urban deterioration and inefficient textures towards revitalization. Using Systems thinking on the subject of reinvention can lead to the identification of complex Systems that are considered effective in producing and reproducing worn-out textures. In this regard, this study was to benefit from a Systemic approach in identifying the the roots of the production and reproduction of historical/worn-out textures in Semnan city. The leading research is among the applied research, and in terms of information and data Analysis, it uses the descriptive-analytical method. The tool for collecting information is also in documents and surveys. The statistical population of the research was 18 university professors, experts, and officials familiar with the urban fabric of Semnan, who were selected by the snowball method. In the end, using experts' opinions, 24 variables were selected as effective drivers of Semnan's production-reproduction System of worn tissue. MicMac software was used for structural-interpretive Analysis of variables. The results show that the rules and regulations governing the regeneration of the studied area are the most important and effective factors. Also, the special ownership conditions governing barren, ruined, and ruined lands have caused the private sector to have no incentive to invest in this area and reproduce the existing conditions. With the continuation of the current process, the existing situation is reproduced. Breaking this round of the reproduction process requires a constructive look at the target neighborhoods from the city administration and government agencies, which can provide the basis for the presence of private sector investors in these neighborhoods

Queuing theory in a very simple Definition is a branch of mathematics for Analysis and management of waiting lines. It is developed in the first years of twentieth century when telephone waiting Lines were studied. Servers are not necessarily human beings but in queuing Systems that human Agents are servers, it is possible to consider the queuing System as a dynamic System. This is because in these Systems, elements of System are interactive and they are interacting with each other. In this paper Dynamics of a queuing System are presented by a Dynamic model using System Dynamics Approach. Afterwards, Dynamics of a simple Queuing System is studied by investigating impacts of some elements on other ones.

Purpose: The problem of wheat production sustainability is an important issue that quarantines the availability of people's food at present as well as the nutrition of the next generations. Food is the essential human's need and has been used from human beings' creation until the end of its life. The existence of Systems satisfying such requirements and the sustainability of them is always essential for the survival of the human race. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the sustainability of the wheat production System in Iran. Design/methodology/approach: In this research, using the System Dynamics approach, the sustainability of Iran's wheat production has been studied. The literature review section of this paper concentrates on several research papers in this context, considering the Systems Dynamics approach. In this study, an introduction has been expressed to the human's need for food and the position of wheat as the primary source of food in meeting this need in Iran. System Dynamics is one of the most commonly used approaches for modeling and simulating environmental and socio-economic phenomena. The wheat production System covering environmental, economic, and social subSystems has been taken into consideration as a case to model the problem. Key factors affecting wheat production have been collected based on a literature review. 50 years historical data for essential factors such as rain, wheat harvesting area, agricultural technology, fertilizers, population, wheat imports, and exports have been used in modeling and hence in the mathematical formulation of the problem. Based on the history of these factors and related research, the dynamic hypothesis of the problem has been defined, and the causal diagrams of the relationships between critical factors and the wheat production have been developed. After modeling and formulation, the problem has been simulated and validated. Then, various scenarios have been proposed and simulated for the sustainability of the wheat production System, and the results have been addressed. The scenarios for changing the machinery level, reducing chemical fertilizer's use, increasing organic fertilizer use, and rainfall fluctuations have been simulated one by one, and their combinations have been simulated, respectively. Findings: The simulation results indicated that the production of wheat is highly sensitive to precipitation and technology levels in the field. Therefore, it is better to focus more on such two factors and to have more concentration on them. Since water is the most crucial resource in wheat production, it would be better to concentrate the research and development efforts on water management technologies in the field. Due to the high sensitivity of wheat production to precipitation fluctuations and technology levels, more investment and better plans should be provided for the better and more efficient use of the two sources. Research limitations/implications: While numerous factors such as pesticides, seeds, planting and harvesting, irrigation methods, management, human resources, and related requirements affect wheat production, due to the large scale of this research, only the most critical factors were selected for the study. Examining the behavior of each of the above-mentioned factors will result in a better awareness of the existing reality and better planning for wheat production. Practical implications: The wheat production System includes environmental, economic, and social subSystems as well as numerous and complex relationships between the human and the environment. The Systemic nature of such interdependencies and interactions needs Systematic approaches and integrated assessment tools. Identifying and modeling correctly the intrinsic characteristics of the wheat production System assure preserves or increases its essential results over the time and help governmental organizations and institutes to move towards sustainable development and to set policies that encourage positive changes. Social implications: Since the proposed model is expected to help the government and agricultural institutions in planning wheat production efficiently, it will make the country move towards selfsufficiency in wheat production, which in turn results in psychological and social security in terms of food and increases social sustainability. Originality/value: To the best knowledge of the authors, there is no comprehensive investigation on the sustainability of wheat production in Iran. The literature review indicates that the agricultural context is almost limited to a particular zone and this problem has not been addressed on the national scale. Thus, this is the first research that examines such a problem.

In this paper we consider a continues Lorenz – type dynamical System. Dynamical behaviors of this System such as computing equilibrium points, different bifurcation curves and computation of normal form coefficient of each bifurcation point analytically and numerically. In particular we derived sufficient conditions for existence of Hopf and Pitchfork bifurcations and determined criticality of these bifurcations. By means of numerical simulations, we show that the System may have chaotic behavior under some conditions. By employing numerical continuation method, we first compute bifurcation curves and then compute all codimension 1 and 2 bifurcation along these curves with determined of the corresponding normal form coefficient.